Germany’s next government will be a coalition of the political centre led by the conservative Friedrich Merz. That may sound like stability. Traditionally, a government made up of the two big centrist parties, the Social Democrats (SPD) and Merz’s Christian Democrats (CDU), has been called the grand coalition. But it is no longer grand and offers only an illusion of stability.

The SPD achieved its worst result in a national election since the second world war, with 16.4% of the vote. The CDU scored its second-worst result, with 28.5%. If you include the Greens and the Liberals, the parties that occupy the political ground from centre-left to centre-right won just over 60% of the votes cast.

The strengthening of the AfD by the conservatives, however, follows a familiar pattern: the CDU has hardened its rhetoric and position on migration, bringing it closer to the AfD’s policies. Merz lifted the AfD to the zenith of its influence in the run-up to the election by forming a parliamentary majority with it for the first time on a symbolic resolution on migration.